EURO 2012 Blog

Play Off Preview – Republic of Ireland vs Estonia
First leg: Tallinn 11/11/11
Second leg: Dublin 15/11/11

Since it’s humble beginnings as the European Nations Cup in 1960, what we now call the European Championships has grown up to become one of the most important competitions in International football. From a tournament that was initially comprised of only four finalists, it has multiplied over the years to now feature, in its 15th running, sixteen independent European nations qualifying from a pool of over 50, with only the tournament hosts being assured of their place(s).

With the main group stage now complete, 12 teams have been confirmed as participants in Euro 2012, four spots however remain to be decided. Which nations fill these remaining spots will be determined by two legged playoffs in mid-November. The draw for the play offs has thrown up some interesting ties, notably, Republic of Ireland vs Estonia.

Republic of Ireland are hoping to qualify for the European Championships for the first time since 1988 in West Germany. The group stage campaign was solid if largely uninspiring, kicking off with what would prove to be a vital 3 points in Armenia. Ireland suffered only one defeat in 10 qualifying matches, losing 2-3 at home to group winners Russia, and interestingly, it was Ireland’s away performances, drawing with Russia and Slovakia and seeing off Macedonia, that really impressed and secured them second place in the group. Riding their luck in Dublin against the quick thinking Armenians, who were themselves hoping to pip Ireland at the post, was just about enough to see them through to the play offs on 21 pts.

Estonia really are the surprise package of Euro 2012 so far. Ranked 59 in the world, they have the lowest ranking of all the teams who’ve qualified to this point, with only co-hosts Poland ranked lower by Fifa. The group stage campaign proved to be something of a rollercoaster ride, winning 1-3 away in Serbia-a fantastic result, but being humbled 2-0 away by the Faroes , the perennial whipping boys, and needing two injury time goals to beat them at home. Three successive victories, away in Slovenia and then home and away against a young Northern Ireland side, were enough to confirm Estonia a play-off place as they squeeze ahead of Serbia and finished the group on 16 pts.

Now, how will these two teams match up come November? The first leg is to played in Estonia on November 11th. As mentioned above, Ireland’s away form in qualifying has been excellent, they finished the group unbeaten away from home conceding only one goal on their travels. Estonia’s home form in qualification has been less than impressive, a scrambled victory against the Faroes and a win against a weak Northern Ireland team their only home successes. Away from home however, Estonia have been much better, and, in Konstantin Vassilijev, have a player who can win them the tie. The hitman has scored 5 goals in 9 games in qualification so far, including both goals in the 1-2 success in Belfast. Republic of Ireland have a number of injury concerns ahead of the two legs, with West Brom striker Shane Long and experienced defender John O Shea both more than likely to miss out. Wolves’ frontman Kevin Doyle is ruled out of the first leg through suspension, however Giovanni Trappatoni will take great pleasure in welcoming veteran striker, talisman and all out Irish hero, Robbie Keane, back into the fold after injury. Keane also scored five in the group stage including both goals in the 0-2 away victory in Macedonia and is a key figure in the Irish set up.

All in all this is a tough one to call. Estonia have never qualified for an international finals competition before and should therefore go into the tie with absolutely nothing to lose and carry the hope of writing the first chapter in their country’s sporting history with them. Ireland have reached the play-off stage for a major tournament four times in their history, including twice for the European Championships, and never progressed. Having said that, on paper, this is their best chance yet .If they are able to grab an away goal in the first leg, Ireland should be strong enough at the back to see the Estonians off over the two legs. However football isn’t played on paper and Estonia are the form team, winning their last three games, if Vassilijev and co can move the ball quickly from the start and not let Ireland settle in either game then they are certainly in with a chance. The key to success for Estonia in the second leg will be to quiet the Dublin crowd and dampen the atmosphere, if they can succeed in doing that, an upset might just be on the cards.

Neil Patterson